2012 Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. Baldwin

Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Baldwin's convention bounce has faded along with Obama's, and this is back to pure tossup status. This is one of the few "pick 'em" races out there.

9/24/2012 -- Baldwin received quite a bump in the polls in the wake of the Democratic convention, and it seems to be sticking.  What once looked like a probably GOP pickup is looking more and more like a Democratic hold.

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For most of its history, the political tradition in the Badger State was neither Republican nor Democrat: It was Progressive.  There was no Democratic Party to speak of, so the only question was whether voters would elect a progressive Republican or a progressive Progressive.
 
But as the Democratic Party blossomed in the state during the 1940s and '50s, that progressive impulse became housed in the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party became more conservative.  Today the state is split, much like other upper Midwestern states.  A solid liberal base exists in Milwaukee and in Dane County (Madison), while the Milwaukee suburbs provide a large base for the Republican Party.  The blue-collar areas around Green Bay and St. Croix provide most of the swing vote for the state.

Since the 1990s, the state has settled a point or two to the left of the country's center.  2008 was a banner year for Wisconsin Democrats, as Barack Obama won there by 14 points.  But two years later the pendulum swung back, and Republicans swept the state legislature while winning the governorship and defeating liberal icon Russ Feingold.  Of course, the pendulum seems to have swung back a bit toward the Democrats, who gained control of the state Senate during the recall elections.

So when Herb Kohl announced that he would retire, it set off what has become one of the Republicans' premier pickup opportunities.  They nominated popular former Gov. Tommy Thompson, while Democrats nominated Rep. Tammy Baldwin.  Baldwin is probably too far to the left of what has become a swing state, but Thompson is 24 years older than when he won his first election; his style may contrast unfavorably with Baldwin's energy.