2012 Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Murphy

Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- This race continues to (barely) retain its tossup status. But the latest Rasmussen Reports polling shows Chris Murphy crossing the 50 percent threshold, while Linda McMahon remains stuck at 45 percent -- a key finding for the Democrat. Not all tossups are created equal, and you'd have to put a thumb on the scale for Murphy at this point.

10/15/2012 -- The latest polling suggests that Murphy might have weathered the storm.  This continues to be an uncomfortably close race for Democrats, however.

9/24/2012 -- Murphy continues to find himself battered by allegations of poor management of personal finances.  If this were a midterm election, he would have real problems here, but the general election electorate is probably enough to push him thorugh.

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After admission to the union, Connecticut adhered staunchly to the Federalist Party and its progeny. Indeed, Connecticut was electing Federalists as late as 1818, much longer than anywhere else in the country. But whether it was Federalists, Adams Democrats, Anti-Jacksonian Democrats, Whigs or Republicans, the people of Connecticut routinely supported whatever option was not the Democratic Party. 

But heavy immigration from Catholic countries in Europe began to erode the Congregationalist base of Federalist/Whig/Republican politics in Connecticut. The Civil War helped stem that tide, as did the affiliation of Italians with Republicans and the radicalization of the Democrats after the 1894 elections. But the difference in the congressional delegation from 1908 to 1912 tells the entire tale of the emerging shift in Connecticut politics. In 1908, the state had five Republican congressmen with the last names Henry, Sperry, Higgins, Hill and Tilson; in 1912 there were five Democrats named Lonergan, Mahan, Reilly, Donovan and Kennedy.

Democrats continued winning with increasing frequency throughout the 1900s, but it really was not until the election of 1958 that they established dominance in the state. While Connecticut veered somewhat back to the Republicans in the 1970s and '80s, and while there are still sections where the right type of Republican can do quite well in, the state today has to be regarded as solidly Democratic.  So Democratic, in fact, that Joe Lieberman, with a near-perfect record from Americans for Democratic Action, found himself to the right of the Connecticut Democratic Party in 2006 and lost his party's nomination that year. (He ran in the general election as an independent, and won.)

He opted not to stand for re-election this year, creating the second open Senate seat in Connecticut in as many cycles.  Republicans nominated their candidate from the 2010 cycle, Linda McMahon.  Democrats opted for the congressman from the 5th Congressional District -- the most Republican area of the state -- Chris Murphy.

On paper, Murphy should have an edge.  But three things have kept the race close.  The first is cash: The largely self-funded McMahon has been pounding Murphy on the New York City airways.  The second is ethics: Murphy has had some problems with his finances, and other Democrats in the state have been implicated in various scandals,  And the third is outsider status: McMahon is about as non-establishment as you can get, while Murphy is a member of a terribly unpopular legislative body.  So for now, the race remains close.