2012 New York 25th District - Brooks vs. Slaughter

Race Analysis

When Louise Slaughter was first elected to Congress, her district consisted of Rochester and surrounding Monroe County suburbs.  In 2002, the parties agreed to combine her district with John LaFalce's Buffalo-based one.  This was something of a win-win for the parties: Republicans saw a Democrat eliminated, Democrats made sure that that Democrat was the socially conservative LaFalce.  The result was the infamous "earmuffs" district, with one bulge in Buffalo, another in Rochester, and a slim strip running across the top of western New York uniting the two.

This time a court drew the map, and it altered the lines considerably.  The district still leans Democratic but not overwhelmingly so; although Barack Obama received 60 percent of the vote here, George W. Bush almost carried the district.

Slaughter -- who is now in her early eighties -- faces a game challenger in Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks.  Brooks is probably a better fit for the district overall, but given the reality of nationalized races for Congress, this is a tough hill for her to climb.  Still, polling has shown the race tightening and Slaughter under 50 percent.  A Brooks win could happen, but it would probably require further erosion in Obama's national standing.